Application of a specific clinical pathway can affect the choice of trial of labor in patients with a history of cesarean delivery.

BACKGROUND: Mode of delivery in women with previous history of cesarean delivery (CD) is highly modifiable by the practices of the delivery unit. Vaginal birth after a cesarean (VBAC) delivery is a safe and preferred alternative in most cases. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of adopting a complex set of measures aimed at the mode of delivery in this group. METHODS: This was a retrospective observational study comparing two birth cohorts before and after the implementation of a series of quality improvement (QI) interventions. The study cohorts comprised women with a history of cesarean delivery who gave birth in the period before (January 2013 - December 2015) and after (January 2018 - December 2020) the adoption of the QI measures. The measures were focused on singleton term cephalic pregnancies with a low transverse incision in the uterus. Measures included approval of all planned CDs by a senior obstetrician, re-training staff on the use of the FIGO classification for intrapartum fetal cardiotocogram, establishing VBAC management guidelines, encouraging epidural analgesia during trial of labor after cesarean (TOLAC), establishing a labor ward team and introducing a monthly maternity audit. RESULTS: Term singleton cephalic pregnancies with previous history of CD accounted for 12.55% of all births in the pre-intervention period and 12.01% in the post-intervention period. The frequency of cesarean deliveries decreased from 89.94% in the pre-intervention period to 64.47% in the post-intervention period (p < 0.0001). We observed a significant increase in TOLAC from 13.18 to 42.12% (p<0.0001) and also an increase in successful VBAC from 76.27 to 84.35% (p < 0.0001). All changes occurred without statistically significant change in overall perinatal mortality. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the feasibility to safely increase trial of labor and vaginal birth after cesarean delivery by implementing a series of quality improvement interventions and clinical pathway changes.

Validation of a Predictive Model of Vaginal Birth after Caesarean Section in Pakistani Women.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the frequency of successful trials of vaginal birth after Caesarean section (VBAC) using the Flamm and Geiger model. STUDY DESIGN: Observational study. Place and Duration of the Study: Obstetrics and Gynaecology Unit II of Dr. Ruth K.M. Pfau Civil Hospital, Karachi, Pakistan, from August 2022 to January 2023. METHODOLOGY: Women with singleton pregnancy having cephalic presentation, previous one lower segment caesarean section (LSCS), and without any contraindication for vaginal delivery were included. Women bearing foetus having estimated weight >3.5kg, morbid obesity, multiple pregnancies, non-cephalic presentation, placenta praevia, abruptio placentae, uncontrolled maternal comorbidities, or had previous two or more Caesarean sections were excluded. Flamm and Geiger score was applied to record observations of successful and unsuccessful trials. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of the score were calculated by ROC curve, along with its area under the curve (AUC) and Youden's index curve, with 95% confidence interval. RESULTS: This study included 258 participants. Successful vaginal delivery was possible in 125 (48.4%) participants, whereas 133 (51.6%) underwent emergency Caesarean section. Cervical dilatation and effacement were the main factors assessing the success. The Flamm and Geiger score of >5 had an area under the curve of 0.813 (0.762-0.864). The score's sensitivity was 75% (67-82%), specificity 76% (68-82%), and PPV of 75% with an accuracy of 76%. CONCLUSION: The Flamm and Geiger score of >5 demonstrated high sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and accuracy in predicting later successful vaginal birth. It is recommended as a promising and valuable tool for assessing VBAC's success in low-resource countries. KEY WORDS: Vaginal birth after caesarean, Flamm and Geiger Model, Indication of caesarean, trial of labour after caesarean, VBAC risk scoring criteria.

Examining provider practice-level disparities in delivery outcomes among patients with a history of Cesarean Delivery.

BACKGROUND: Choosing whether to pursue a trial of labor after cesarean (TOLAC) or scheduled repeat cesarean delivery (SRCD) requires prenatal assessment of risks and benefits. Providers and patients play a central role in this process. However, the influence of provider-associated characteristics on delivery methods remains unclear. We hypothesized that different provider practice groups have different obstetric outcomes in patients with one prior cesarean delivery (CD). METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of deliveries between April 29, 2015 - April 29, 2020. Subjects were divided into three cohorts: SRCD, successful VBAC, and unsuccessful VBAC (patients who chose TOLAC but had a CD). Disparities were reviewed between five different obstetric provider practice groups, determined from a breakdown of different providers delivering at the study site during the study period. Proportional differences were examined using Chi-squared tests and logistic regression models. RESULTS: 1,439 deliveries were included in the study. There were significant proportional disparities between patients in the different groups. Specifically, patients from Group D were significantly more likely to undergo successful VBAC, while patients seeing a provider from Group A were more likely to deliver by SRCD. In our multivariate analysis of successful versus unsuccessful VBAC, patients from Group D had greater odds ratios of successful VBAC compared to Group A. Patients delivered by Group E had a significantly lower odds ratio of successful VBAC. CONCLUSION: This study suggests an association between provider practice groups and delivery outcomes among patients with one prior CD. These data contribute to a growing body of literature around patient choice in pregnancy and the interplay of patients and providers. These findings help to guide future investigations to improve outcomes among patients with a history of CD.

Predictors of successful trial of labor after cesarean section (TOLAC) in women with one prior transverse cesarean section at Tertiary Hospitals in northwest Ethiopia: a multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: Trials of labor after cesarean section is the preferred strategy to decrease the cesarean delivery rate and reducing complications associated with multiple cesarean sections. The success rate of trials of labor after cesarean section and associated factors have not been well documented in Ethiopia. Hence, this study was aimed to determine the success rate and factors associated with the trial of labor after one cesarean section in five Comprehensive Specialized Hospitals located in northwest Ethiopia. METHODS: An institutional-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 437 women who came for the trial of labor from December 1, 2021, to March 30, 2022. All women who fulfilled the eligibility criteria were included to this study. Data was collected using structured and pre-tested questionnaire. Then, the data was entered into Epi Data 4.6 software and exported to SPSS version 26 for analysis. To identify the variables influencing the outcome variable, bivariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted. The model's fitness was checked using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test, and an adjusted odds ratio with a 95% confidence interval was used to declare the predictors that are significantly associated with TOLAC. RESULTS: The success rate of the trial of labor after one cesarean section was 56.3% (95% CI, 51.3%, 61.2%). Maternal age ≥ 35 years (AOR: 3.3, 95% CI 1.2, 9.3), the fetal station at admission ≤ zero (AOR: 5. 6, 95% CI 3.3, 9.5), vaginal delivery before cesarean section (AOR: 1.9, 95% CI 1.2, 3.2), and successful vaginal birth after cesarean delivery (AOR 2.2, 95% CI 1.2, 4.1) were found to have a significant association with the success rate of trial of labor after cesarean section. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the success rate of the trial of labor after a cesarean section was low as compared to the ACOG guideline and other studies in different countries. Therefore, the clinicians ought to offer counsel during antenatal and intrapartum period, encourage the women to make informed decision on the mode of delivery, and the practitioners need to follow fetal and maternal conditions strictly to minimize adverse birth outcomes.

Trial of labor versus elective cesarean delivery for patients with two prior cesarean sections: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Cesarean section (CS) rates have been on the rise globally, leading to an increasing number of women facing the decision between a Trial of Labor after two Cesarean Sections (TOLAC-2) or opting for an Elective Repeat Cesarean Section (ERCS). This study evaluates and compares safety outcomes of TOLAC and ERCS in women with a history of two previous CS deliveries. METHODS: PubMed, MEDLINE, EMbase, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) databases were searched for studies published until 30 June 2023. Eligible studies were included based on predetermined criteria, and a random-effects model was employed to pool data for maternal and neonatal outcomes. RESULTS: Thirteen studies with a combined sample size of 101,011 women who had two prior CS were included. TOLAC-2 was associated with significantly higher maternal mortality (odds ratio (OR)=1.50, 95% confidence interval (CI)= 1.25-1.81) and higher chance of uterine rupture (OR = 7.15, 95% CI = 3.44-14.87) compared to ERCS. However, no correlation was found for other maternal outcomes, including blood transfusion, hysterectomy, or post-partum hemorrhage. Furthermore, neonatal outcomes, such as Apgar scores, NICU admissions, and neonatal mortality, were comparable in the TOLAC-2 and ERCS groups. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest an increased risk of uterine rupture and maternal mortality with TOLAC-2, emphasizing the need for personalized risk assessment and shared decision-making by healthcare professionals. Additional studies are needed to refine our understanding of these outcomes in the context of TOLAC-2.

Trial of labor after cesarean, vaginal birth after cesarean, and the risk of uterine rupture: an expert review.

The decision to pursue a trial of labor after cesarean delivery is complex and depends on patient preference, the likelihood of successful vaginal birth after cesarean delivery, assessment of the risks vs benefits of trial of labor after cesarean delivery, and available resources to support safe trial of labor after cesarean delivery at the planned birthing center. The most feared complication of trial of labor after cesarean delivery is uterine rupture, which can have catastrophic consequences, including substantial maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality. Although the absolute risk of uterine rupture is low, several clinical, historical, obstetrical, and intrapartum factors have been associated with increased risk. It is therefore critical for clinicians managing patients during trial of labor after cesarean delivery to be aware of these risk factors to appropriately select candidates for trial of labor after cesarean delivery and maximize the safety and benefits while minimizing the risks. Caution is advised when considering labor augmentation and induction in patients with a previous cesarean delivery. With established hospital safety protocols that dictate close maternal and fetal monitoring, avoidance of prostaglandins, and careful titration of oxytocin infusion when induction agents are needed, spontaneous and induced trial of labor after cesarean delivery are safe and should be offered to most patients with 1 previous low transverse, low vertical, or unknown uterine incision after appropriate evaluation, counseling, planning, and shared decision-making. Future research should focus on clarifying true risk factors and identifying the optimal approach to intrapartum and induction management, tools for antenatal prediction, and strategies for prevention of uterine rupture during trial of labor after cesarean delivery. A better understanding will facilitate patient counseling, support efforts to improve trial of labor after cesarean delivery and vaginal birth after cesarean delivery rates, and reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with uterine rupture during trial of labor after cesarean delivery.

Factors associated with successful balloon catheter labor induction in women with a previous caesarean section: A retrospective single-center evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Labor induction of women with a history of uterine scarring is an increasingly frequent situation and one for which there are currently no clear professional recommendations favoring one method over another. The objectives of this study were to determine the success rate of balloon catheter induction in women with a history of caesarean section and to evaluate the main factors associated with vaginal delivery. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This single-center retrospective study was conducted between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2018, in Lille, France, and included all women with one previous caesarean section who were induced by first-line balloon catheter induction. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify the factors associated with the primary outcome (vaginal delivery). RESULTS: Of the 310 women in the sample, 192 delivered vaginally (62 %). After adjustment, factors associated with successful induction (vaginal delivery) were the number of previous vaginal deliveries (odds ratio [OR] 1.37; 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.81), evolution of the Bishop score after balloon removal (OR 1.24; 95 % CI 1.10-1.41), and the initial Bishop score (OR 1.17; 95 % CI 1.00-1.37). Uterine rupture was observed in three women (1 %). CONCLUSION: The vaginal delivery rate after balloon catheter induction in women with a previous caesarean section was 62 %. Prognostic factors for vaginal delivery include previous vaginal delivery, the initial Bishop score, and evolution of the Bishop score after balloon catheter induction.

The impact of a trial of labor after cesarean versus elective repeat cesarean delivery: A meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The increasing global incidence of cesarean section has prompted efforts to reduce cesarean delivery rates. A trial of labor after cesarean (TOLAC) has emerged as an alternative to elective repeat cesarean delivery (ERCD) for women with a prior cesarean delivery. However, the available evidence on the comparative outcomes of these 2 options remains inconsistent, primarily due to varying advantages and risks associated with each. Our meta-analysis aims to compare the maternal-neonatal results in TOLAC and ERCD in women with prior cesarean deliveries. METHODS: A comprehensive search was performed in PubMed, Embase, Cochrane library databases up to September,2022 to identity studies evaluating perinatal outcomes in women who underwent TOLAC compared to ERCD following a previous cesarean delivery. The included studies were subjected to meta-analysis using RevMan 5.3 software to assess the overall findings. RESULTS: A total of 13 articles were included in this meta-analysis. Statistically significant differences were identified in the rate of uterine rupture (OR = 2.01,95%CI = 1.48-2.74, P < .00001) and APGAR score < 7 at 5 minutes (OR = 2.17,95%CI = 1.69-2.77, P < .00001) between the TOLAC and ERCD groups. However, no significant differences were observed in the rates of hysterectomy, maternal blood transfusion, postpartum infection, postpartum hemorrhage and neonatal intensive care unit (P ≥ .05) admission between the 2 groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis revealed that TOLAC is associated with a higher risk of uterine rupture and lower incidence APGAR score < 7 at 5 minutes compared to ERCD. It is vital to consider predictive factors when determining the appropriate mode of delivery in order to ensure optimal pregnancy outcomes. Efforts should be made to identify the underlying causes of adverse outcomes and implement safety precautions to select suitable participants and create safe environments for TOLAC.

Context-sensitive holistic care of women with one previous Caesarean section.

This article's emphasis is on the holistic care of women who are assessed as suitable for and amenable to vaginal birth after Caesarean section (VBAC) in the South African state health sector context. It is beyond its scope to deal with the minutiae of VBAC conduct, operative conduct of repeat Caesarean section (CS), or management of uterine rupture. It is also beyond the scope of the article to reflect on practices, which are accepted in other healthcare contexts. The intention is not to promote VBAC over elective repeat CS, but rather to assist healthcare workers with providing high-quality holistic care. The goal is that women with previous CS are given access to the mode of delivery, which is safest for them and their fetus, while minimising adverse psychological effects of previous and future negative birth experiences.

A jump into the deep end - Women's strategies on the way to VBAC in Poland.

PROBLEM: In Poland, as in other high-income countries, the rate of caesarean sections (CS) is alarmingly high. Promoting vaginal birth after caesarean section (VBAC) is one of the ways that may help to decrease CS rate. Despite the recommendations by the Polish Association of Gynaecologists and Obstetricians that one previous CS should not be an indication for a subsequent one and VBAC should be promoted, the rate of VBAC in Poland remains low. BACKGROUND: Research shows that in countries with high VBAC rates women felt supported by healthcare personnel to have VBAC. AIM: This study aims to explore the elements of Polish maternity services that contribute to or hinder women's chances of having a VBAC. METHODS: The study used qualitative methods of research based on semi-structured interviews. We interviewed 22 women. Each woman was interviewed twice, once during pregnancy and then between 6 and 12 weeks after she had given birth. FINDING: Women who planned vaginal birth after one previous CS engaged in various strategies such as seeking supportive personnel, opting for fee-for-service dedicated midwifery care or traveled long distances to give birth in facilities supporting VBAC. CONCLUSIONS: Polish maternity services do not support women on the way to vaginal birth after surgery. Access to VBAC in Poland is highly unequal and dependent on women's social and financial resources such as access to private care, place of residence, or social relationships. Efforts should be made to make access to VBAC more universal.

Can we predict peritoneal adhesions formation after cesarean delivery?

OBJECTIVE: To examine demographic and obstetrical factors that are associated with adhesion formation following cesarean delivery. METHODS: We conducted a population-based study that included all women over 18 years og age who underwent two cesarean deliveries between the years 1988 and 2016 in a large tertiary medical center. We excluded women with adhesions already diagnosed during the first cesarean delivery, history of other abdominal or pelvic surgery, history of pelvic infection or pelvic inflammatory disease, history of endometriosis and history of uterine Müllerian anomalies. In addition, women with a classical or T-shaped uterine incision, non-singleton pregnancies, and fetal chromosomal or structural abnormalities were excluded. RESULTS: During the study period, 32.6% (n = 2283) of women were diagnosed with peritoneal adhesions during the second cesarean delivery. Factors found to be significantly associated with peritoneal adhesions were maternal age 35 years or older at the first cesarean delivery, Bedouin Arab ethnicity, composite of intrapartum and postpartum infectious morbidity, and cesarean deliveries that were performed after the onset of labor. In contrast, having a previous vaginal birth was found to be protective. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that a woman's characteristics at her first cesarean delivery and her obstetrical history may be predictive of the likelihood of adhesion formation.

Decision-making experiences and the need for decision aids in women considering vaginal birth after cesarean: A qualitative meta-synthesis.

AIMS: This study aims to comprehensively explore the decision-making requirements of women contemplating vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC). DESIGN & METHODS: A meta-synthesis approach was employed for this study. Using an integrative methodology, we conducted a systematic assessment of women's experiences and needs related to VBAC decision-making. A comprehensive search was conducted across The Cochrane Library, PubMed, EMBASE, Ovid Medline, SCOPUS, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), PsycINFO, and Wan Fang databases to identify pertinent studies between 2000 and 2022. Furthermore, the reference lists of the included studies were thoroughly examined. RESULTS: Fifteen studies were incorporated, from which seven themes emerged: emotional changes, preference for vaginal birth, unmet information needs, influences on decision-making, decision-making autonomy, aligning information provision with decision-support needs, and the requirement for support systems. Two primary syntheses were constructed on the decision-making process and the need for decision-making aids, respectively. CONCLUSION: Women opting for VBAC experienced emotional shifts during their decision-making process in pregnancy. There remains a need for an enhanced decision-making tool to guide them in their choice. Recommendations for implementation in VBAC decision aids include facilitating women's involvement in decision-making, satisfying their information needs, and delivering appropriate emotional support.

The association between obesity and the success of trial of labor after cesarean delivery (TOLAC) in women with past vaginal delivery.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effect of overweight (body mass index; BMI 25.0-29.9 kg/m2), and obesity (BMI>30 kg/m2), on the success of trial of labor after cesarean delivery (TOLAC), with consideration of successful past vaginal birth. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was performed using electronic database of obstetrics department at a university-affiliated tertiary medical center. All women admitted for TOLAC at 37-42 weeks of gestational age, carrying a singleton live fetus at cephalic presentation, with a single previous low segment transverse cesarean delivery between 1/2015 and 5/2021 were included. Primary outcome was the rate of cesarean delivery during labor, and subgroup analysis was performed for the presence of past vaginal birth. RESULTS: Of the 1200 TOLAC deliveries meeting the inclusion criteria, 61.9 % had BMI in the normal range, 24.6 % were overweight (BMI 25.0-29.9 kg/m2), and 13.4 % were obese (BMI of 30 kg/m2 and over). Using a multivariate analysis, BMI≥30 kg/m2 was associated with increased risk of cesarean delivery compared to normal weight. However, in the subgroup of 292 women with a history of successful vaginal birth BMI did not affect TOLAC success. CONCLUSIONS: BMI does not affect the success of TOLAC in women with previous vaginal birth. This information should be considered during patients counselling, in order to achieve a better selection of mode of delivery and higher patients' satisfaction.

Evaluation of the perinatal anxiety and its effect on delivery type in those who want to have a vaginal birth after a cesarean section.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the level of perinatal anxiety in pregnant women who considered vaginal birth after a cesarean section (VBAC) and evaluate its effect on the type of delivery. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: The study was planned as single-centered and analytical. It was performed with pregnant women planning VBAC, reached via Google Forms between February 23 and August 17, 2022. An online form consisting of the Patient Information Form and the Perinatal Anxiety Screening Scale-Turkish version (PASS-TR) was applied to the participants. The type of delivery was questioned by phone call. RESULTS: Ages of 162 pregnant women ranged from 22 to 40 years (mean=31.08±3.75). 54.9% (n=89) had a gestational week of 37 or more. 83.3% (n=135) had a vaginal delivery, and 54.3% (n=88) had a score of >16 on PASS-TR. PASS-TR total and subscale scores were higher in patients with known gynecological diseases (p<0.001). The total score of PASS-TR was higher in those aged between 18-30 years (p=0.027). The total number of pregnancies was higher in those with a PASS-TR score of ≤16 (p=0.007). There was no statistically significant difference between the total and subscale scores of PASS-TR with the type of delivery after cesarean section. CONCLUSIONS: Perinatal anxiety was determined in 54.3% of the pregnant women planning VBAC, and 83.3% had a successful vaginal delivery. Age, low gravida, and the presence of gynecological diseases were risk factors for anxiety. There was no relationship between the type of delivery after cesarean section and perinatal anxiety.

Characteristics of women who underwent one or more previous cesarean sections according to Nascer no Brasil.

OBJECTIVE: To descriptively analyze Brazilian parturient women who underwent previous cesarean section and point out the factors associated with Vaginal Birth After Cesarean (VBAC) in Brazil. METHODS: The study used data from women with one, two, or three or more cesarean sections from the survey Nascer no Brasil (Birth in Brazil). Differences between categories were assessed through the chi-square test (χ2). Variables with significant differences (p < 0.05) were incorporated into logistic regression. FINDINGS: Out of the total of 23,894 women, 20.9% had undergone a previous cesarean section. The majority (85.1%) underwent another cesarean section, with 75.5% occurring before the onset of labor. The rate of Vaginal Birth After Cesarean (VBAC) was 14.9%, with a success rate of 60.8%. Women who underwent three or more cesarean sections displayed greater social vulnerability. The chances of VBAC were higher among those who opted for a vaginal birth towards the end of gestation, had a prior vaginal birth, underwent labor induction, were admitted with over 4 centimeters of dilation, and without partner. Receiving care from the private health care system, having two or more prior cesarean sections, obstetric complications, and deciding on cesarean delivery late in gestation reduced the chances of VBAC. Age group, educational background, prenatal care adequacy, and the reason for the previous cesarean section did not result in significant differences. CONCLUSION: The majority of women who underwent a previous cesarean section in Brazil are directed towards another surgery, and a higher number of cesarean sections is linked to greater social inequality. Factors associated with VBAC included choosing vaginal birth towards the end of gestation, having had a previous vaginal birth, higher cervical dilation upon admission, induction, assistance from the public health care system, absence of obstetric complications, and without a partner. Efforts to promote VBAC are necessary to reduce overall cesarean rates and their repercussions on maternal and child health.

FIGO good practice recommendations for cesarean delivery: Prep-for-Labor triage to minimize risks and maximize favorable outcomes.

Cesarean delivery is an abdominal surgical procedure performed for child delivery when the vaginal route is not feasible or desired due to maternal/fetal indications. All childbirth facilities should be able to safely perform a cesarean, which is not the current reality. For planned cesarean delivery, the facility must be prepared for the patient. In contrast, for unplanned arrivals at the facility, FIGO's Prep-for-Labor triage method allows rapid decision-making on whether cesarean delivery can be safely performed on site or whether transfer to an advanced care center is needed. A checklist of staff/tools for safe on-site cesarean delivery is provided to enable timely decision-making. Maternal complications following cesarean are three-fold higher than vaginal delivery. To prevent nonmedically indicated cesarean by favoring vaginal delivery, up-to-date safe and effective guidance is provided, defining labor, second stage length, and status before an arrested labor is confirmed. Whether cesarean delivery is planned or emergency, the Misgav Ladach simplified procedure is proposed as it is suitable for both low- and high-risk cases, including twins, thereby reducing both operative morbidity and postoperative recovery. A trial of labor after first cesarean (TOLAC) should be pursued when feasible, for which the indications, contraindications, safeguards, and steps of safe labor induction are delineated. Implementation of these good practice recommendations will improve childbirth by reducing excessive nonindicated cesareans, while precisely defining the resources and postoperative care required for safe performance on site. Enabling safe childbirth by cesarean and TOLAC, even at sites with low rates currently, will significantly improve maternal and fetal outcomes.

External validation of prediction models for vaginal delivery after the trial of labour among women with previous one caesarean section - A cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To externally validate three predictive models (the Grobman model (2007), the Zhang model (2020), and the Grobman model (2021)) for identifying women with increased chances of a successful trial of labour after caesarean section (TOLAC). METHODS: This retrospective observational cohort study was conducted in a tertiary teaching hospital from 2018 to 2021. Individual probabilities were calculated for women with previous one caesarean section who underwent TOLAC at term, using the predicted probabilities from the logistic regression models. The primary outcome of this study was vaginal delivery following attempted TOLAC. The predictive ability of the models was assessed using the area under the receiver operative characteristics curves (AUC) and a calibration graph. RESULTS: Of 1515 eligible women who underwent TOLAC, we found an overall rate of successful TOLAC of 60.3 %. No significant difference was noticed in adverse scar outcome and neonatal morbidity while comparing successful and failed TOLAC. The discriminative ability of Grobman-2007 and Grobman-2021 and the Zhang model were fair to poor with the AUC of 0.54(95 % CI 0.51-0.57), 0.62(95 % CI 0.59-0.65) and 0.66(95 % CI 0.63-0.69) respectively. The agreement between the observed rates of TOLAC success and the predicted probabilities for all three models was poor. CONCLUSION: The performance of all three models predicting success after TOLAC was poor in the study population. A population-specific model may be needed, with the addition of factors influencing the labour, such as the methods of induction, which may aid in predicting the outcome.